How people are moved through a page
The strange route is being abandoned. Menus you have to work out have fallen from 11.7% of earlier winners to 6.7% of the newest 120, a third of them gone — while footer design, the plainest furniture on a page, is climbing at 2.4 times the old rate.
The finding
The received wisdom is that unconventional navigation is a luxury paid for in frustration — you buy distinctiveness and the bill arrives in usability. It is a reasonable thing to believe and the marks do not support it.
The usability gap is -0.016 of a point across 39 sites against 379 — statistically indistinguishable from no gap at all, with a confidence interval straddling zero. The creativity gap runs the other way and is real: +0.17, with a 95% interval of 0.05 to 0.29 that does not cross zero.
So the trade everyone assumes is not in the data. Among work at this level, making someone learn the route costs nothing on the axis it is supposed to cost, and pays on the axis nobody expects to be able to buy.
And the limit on that, which matters more than the finding: every site counted here won something. A project whose unusual navigation simply confused people never reached this corpus. This cannot tell you unusual navigation is safe — it tells you that among work already good enough to win, juries do not dock it for being unusual.
And yet
Routes you have to work out have fallen from 11.7% of earlier winners to 6.7% of the newest 120 — a third of them gone. What is climbing in their place is the least glamorous furniture on a web page.
Rising
Falling
earlier winners· newest 120·share of sites carrying each
The fastest riser is footer design at 2.39 times — the foot of the page treated as a designed thing. A footer is the part of a page nobody photographs, and it is being designed with more care than it has had in years. Beside it the ordinary labelled menu and the header, both up.
Read together, the rising set is a page telling you where you are and how to leave. The falling set is a page asking you to find out.
The split inside it
It would be easy to read this as expressive navigation dying and convention winning. That is not what the numbers say, because the two most expressive patterns move in opposite directions.
Routes you must work out: 0.57×. Things you drag, hold and point at: 1.15×. One is falling and the other is rising, and both are unmistakably ambitious. What separates them is whether the ambition is spent on where things are or on what happens when you touch them.
That is the shape of the change. The map is going back to being legible; the surface is becoming more responsive. You are told where you are, and then given something worth handling once you are there. The experiment moved from wayfinding into the material.
By what the site is for
Winners whose route you have to work out. Every figure on this page is about these.
The rate runs from 18% in art down to 0% in photo & video — where 41 winners produced not one route a visitor has to work out.
Art runs at 18% and Photo & Video at 0%. The pattern behind that is not difficulty or budget. It is whether the navigating is part of the thing being sold. Where the site IS the experience — art, film, campaigns, games — the route is fair game and being made to explore is the point. Where the work is the point and the site is its container, navigation gets out of the way, because nobody browsing photographs wants the menu to be the memorable part.
Where this goes
The safe reading of all of this is not "be conventional". It is be conventional about position and adventurous about substance. Spend the plain menu, the real header, the working footer — they are rising, they are cheap, and nothing on this page suggests they cost you a creative mark. Then put the invention into what the visitor handles once they have arrived.
If a project wants a route people must learn, the marks give no reason not to — provided the rest of the work is at this standard. That is the whole condition, and it is doing more work in that sentence than the finding is.
712 confirmed winners; 418 of them carry published jury marks, which is where the usability and creativity figures come from. Movement is recent winners against older ones, so the only thing separating the two sides is when a site won. Genre figures need at least 28 winners in a genre before they appear.